KTPA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

28%

26%

19%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.2¢Risks 21.25u

EPSNO 78.8¢Risks 78.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +78.75u · EPS −78.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	25.7%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	27.8%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.3%	11.1%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	7.4%	25.7%	2.1%	—	12.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	15.6%	11.3%	13.6%	—	10.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	12.9%	18.4%	18.4%	—	11.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	17.4%	13.1%	13.1%	11.1%	11.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	10.6%	—	—	11.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	37%	85.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	84.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	83.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	83.8°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261025-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗