KTPA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

16%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.2¢Risks 13.15u

EPSNO 86.9¢Risks 86.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.85u · EPS −86.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	16.9%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	18.0%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.1%	5.9%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	3.6%	15.8%	0.8%	—	6.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	8.4%	5.7%	7.1%	—	5.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	6.5%	10.0%	10.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	9.0%	6.4%	6.4%	5.3%	5.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	4.9%	—	—	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	85.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	83.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	84.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.8°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 19:27 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗