KTPA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

81%

74%

70%

64%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.6¢Risks 75.55u

AIFSNO 24.4¢Risks 24.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.45u · AIFS −24.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	66.5%	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	53.8%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	71.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	18.5%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	8.2%	76.7%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	63.1%	66.4%	18.9%	—	54.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	75.7%	72.2%	75.1%	10.6%	60.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	79.0%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	62.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	83.4°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	84.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	87.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	83.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	82.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗