KTPA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

74%

73%

65%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 73.2¢Risks 36.60u

HRESNO 26.8¢Risks 13.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +13.40u · HRES −13.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	60.8%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	47.5%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	14.4%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	5.9%	71.2%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	56.3%	59.7%	14.5%	—	47.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	69.6%	65.7%	69.0%	7.6%	53.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	73.2%	—	—	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	82%	87.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	83.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	84.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	84.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	84.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	82.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗