KTPA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

74%

73%

65%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 73.2¢Risks 36.60u

HRESNO 26.8¢Risks 13.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +13.40u · HRES −13.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	57.6%	76.8%	74.8%	64.5%	70.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	57.6%	76.8%	74.8%	64.5%	70.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	57.6%	76.8%	72.8%	64.5%	70.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	57.6%	76.8%	72.8%	64.5%	70.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	57.6%	76.8%	72.8%	64.5%	70.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	73.6%	76.8%	72.8%	64.5%	81.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	73.6%	76.8%	72.8%	64.5%	81.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	73.6%	76.8%	72.8%	64.5%	81.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	73.6%	76.8%	72.8%	64.5%	81.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00	73.6%	81.6%	73.3%	64.8%	81.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	73.6%	81.6%	73.3%	64.8%	81.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	73.6%	81.6%	73.3%	64.8%	81.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	73.6%	81.6%	73.3%	64.8%	81.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	73.6%	81.6%	73.3%	64.8%	81.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	73.6%	81.6%	73.3%	64.8%	81.6%
2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00	73.6%	78.4%	73.3%	64.8%	81.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	82%	87.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	83.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	84.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	84.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	84.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	82.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗