KTPA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

38%

35%

33%

13%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

EPSNO 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.80u · EPS −64.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	31.3%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	19.8%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	3.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	0.8%	38.7%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	23.5%	26.3%	2.6%	—	17.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	34.3%	30.4%	33.7%	0.9%	20.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	37.5%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	58%	87.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	84.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	84.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	84.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	83.7°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗