KTPA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

38%

35%

33%

13%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

EPSNO 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.80u · EPS −64.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:56+00:00	22.2%	5.9%	28.0%	19.3%	16.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	22.2%	5.9%	28.0%	19.3%	16.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	22.2%	5.9%	28.0%	19.3%	16.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	22.2%	5.9%	28.0%	19.3%	16.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	22.2%	5.9%	28.0%	19.3%	16.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:46+00:00	22.2%	12.4%	25.3%	19.3%	16.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	22.2%	12.4%	25.3%	19.3%	16.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	22.2%	12.4%	25.3%	19.3%	16.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	23.8%	12.4%	25.3%	19.3%	16.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	23.8%	12.4%	25.2%	19.2%	16.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00	23.8%	11.7%	25.2%	19.2%	16.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	23.8%	11.7%	25.2%	19.2%	16.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	23.8%	11.7%	25.2%	19.2%	16.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	23.8%	11.7%	36.2%	19.2%	16.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	23.8%	11.7%	36.2%	19.2%	16.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	23.8%	11.7%	36.2%	19.2%	16.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	36.2%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	36.2%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	36.2%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	36.2%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	36.2%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	37.7%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	37.7%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	37.7%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	37.7%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	37.7%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	37.7%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:20+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	37.7%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	37.7%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	35.5%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	35.5%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	24.8%	11.7%	35.5%	34.3%	52.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	38.4%	11.7%	35.5%	34.3%	57.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	38.4%	11.7%	35.5%	34.3%	57.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	38.4%	11.7%	35.5%	34.3%	57.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	38.4%	11.7%	35.5%	34.3%	57.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00	38.4%	12.6%	32.6%	35.2%	57.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	38.4%	12.6%	32.6%	35.2%	57.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	38.4%	12.6%	32.6%	35.2%	57.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	38.4%	12.6%	32.6%	35.2%	57.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	38.3%	12.6%	32.6%	35.2%	57.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	58%	87.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	84.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	84.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	84.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	83.7°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗