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KTPA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
94%
HRES
81%
WN2
80%
AIFS
78%
ICON
48%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 71.0¢Risks 70.95u
VS
ICONNO 29.0¢Risks 29.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.05u · ICON −29.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00IFS HRES: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 80.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 47.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:00ICON: 47.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 47.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 47.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:21+00:0077.8%94.3%79.5%80.8%47.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0077.8%94.3%79.5%80.8%47.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0077.8%94.3%79.5%80.8%47.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0077.8%94.3%79.5%80.8%47.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble94%84.3°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES81%86.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 280%84.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single78%84.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON48%79.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261027-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 81°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗