WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KTPA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
94%
HRES
81%
WN2
80%
AIFS
78%
ICON
48%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 71.0¢Risks 70.95u
VS
ICONNO 29.0¢Risks 29.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.05u · ICON −29.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 71.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 75.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 70.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 82.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 83.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 66.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 71.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 58.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 42.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0017.9%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0014.3%———29.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0081.4%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0081.8%———71.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0075.2%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0075.2%———65.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0064.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0065.5%———60.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0068.4%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0051.6%———56.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0045.8%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0059.5%———61.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0047.3%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0048.4%———61.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0056.9%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0042.1%———56.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0042.1%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0046.3%———58.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0051.6%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0059.3%———51.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0037.9%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0032.4%———42.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0038.6%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0048.8%—71.2%—45.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0048.8%—87.8%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0044.6%———53.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0043.9%—27.8%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0038.8%—75.1%—48.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0039.9%—70.7%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0040.3%—82.8%—53.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0042.7%—83.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0053.4%18.9%72.9%66.4%60.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0045.2%—64.8%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble94%84.3°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES81%86.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 280%84.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single78%84.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON48%79.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261027-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 81°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗