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KTPA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
48%
AIFS
39%
WN2
36%
ICON
26%
EPS
17%
Consensus
17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 32.2¢Risks 32.20u
VS
EPSNO 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.80u · EPS −67.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:004.3%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.1%———8.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0053.7%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0054.2%———40.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0045.2%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0045.2%———34.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0033.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0034.5%———29.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0037.5%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0022.4%———26.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0018.2%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0028.8%———30.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0019.3%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0020.1%———30.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0026.5%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0015.9%———26.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0015.9%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0018.5%———27.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0021.9%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0027.7%———21.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0012.5%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:009.5%———14.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0012.4%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0018.1%—37.3%—16.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0017.7%—60.6%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0014.7%———20.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0013.9%—6.5%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0011.0%—39.5%—16.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0011.2%—33.8%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0011.0%—48.7%—18.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0011.9%—48.7%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0017.6%2.9%34.2%27.7%22.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0012.3%—25.6%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES48%86.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single39%84.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 236%84.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON26%79.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble17%84.2°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend4%81.0°F3.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261027-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗