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KTPA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
48%
AIFS
39%
WN2
36%
ICON
26%
EPS
17%
Consensus
17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 32.2¢Risks 32.20u
VS
EPSNO 67.8¢Risks 67.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.80u · EPS −67.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:22+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.9% · 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:22+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:22+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 15:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:22+00:0039.0%18.0%36.2%47.5%25.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0039.0%18.0%36.2%47.5%25.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0039.0%18.0%36.2%47.5%25.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0039.0%18.0%36.2%47.5%25.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:0039.0%18.0%36.2%47.5%25.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:0039.0%18.0%36.2%47.5%25.5%
2026-10-20T15:31:43+00:0039.0%16.9%36.2%47.5%25.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES48%86.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single39%84.9°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 236%84.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON26%79.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble17%84.2°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend4%81.0°F3.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261027-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗