KTPA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

21%

17%

17%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 15.7¢Risks 15.70u

EPSNO 84.3¢Risks 84.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +84.30u · EPS −84.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	22.2%	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	42.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	2.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	23.0%	—	7.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	18.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	30.1%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	29.7%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.8%	18.0%	13.5%	10.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	12.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	30%	86.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	84.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	84.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	79.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	84.3°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261027-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗