KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

76%

63%

27%

17%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

ICONNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.70u · ICON −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	88.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	7.6%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	78.9%	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	69.9%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	70.6%	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	55.6%	60.4%	0.2%	—	67.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	55.8%	79.0%	89.4%	—	72.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	80.0%	74.9%	90.0%	—	78.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	57.1%	21.2%	67.0%	—	70.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	59.9%	52.5%	63.1%	—	70.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	14.2%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	62.9%	62.9%	51.7%	—	56.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	58.0%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	39.1%	68.6%	85.1%	—	68.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	44.3%	70.8%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	13.6%	66.1%	76.8%	—	73.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	7.0%	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	17.6%	4.2%	93.9%	—	83.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	42.6%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	14.9%	27.3%	97.2%	—	71.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	11.8%	63.3%	0.0%	—	76.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	9.0%	0.0%	99.1%	—	70.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	82.5%	40.5%	99.4%	—	70.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	91.0%	70.2%	98.9%	62.3%	86.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	89.7%	80.0%	98.2%	—	85.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	89.3%	63.2%	99.1%	89.9%	80.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	56.9%	95.3%	98.5%	—	86.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	87.0%	94.5%	96.5%	83.7%	76.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	88.0%	93.0%	97.1%	—	88.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	89.0%	97.8%	93.9%	83.9%	95.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	94.2%	98.3%	95.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	82.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0497
National Blend	77%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0515
IFS Ensemble	76%	82.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0590
AIFS Single	63%	80.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1384
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2016
WeatherNext 2	27%	77.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.5373
ICON	17%	75.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.6906

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗