KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

76%

63%

27%

17%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

ICONNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.70u · ICON −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00	90.4%	63.6%	30.5%	61.0%	54.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:14+00:00	90.4%	63.6%	30.5%	61.0%	54.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	90.4%	63.6%	55.3%	61.0%	54.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	90.4%	63.6%	55.3%	61.0%	54.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	90.4%	63.6%	55.3%	61.0%	54.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:46+00:00	71.2%	63.6%	55.3%	77.7%	16.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	71.2%	63.6%	55.3%	77.7%	16.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	71.2%	63.6%	55.3%	77.7%	16.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:45+00:00	71.2%	63.6%	55.3%	77.7%	16.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:55+00:00	71.2%	63.6%	26.7%	77.7%	16.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:46+00:00	71.2%	63.6%	26.7%	77.7%	16.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	71.2%	75.9%	26.7%	77.7%	16.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:45+00:00	71.2%	75.9%	26.7%	77.7%	16.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:59+00:00	62.8%	75.7%	26.7%	77.7%	16.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:29+00:00	62.8%	75.7%	26.7%	77.7%	16.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	82.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0497
National Blend	77%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0515
IFS Ensemble	76%	82.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0590
AIFS Single	63%	80.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1384
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2016
WeatherNext 2	27%	77.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.5373
ICON	17%	75.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.6906

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗