KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

74%

68%

55%

14%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.4¢Risks 48.45u

WN2NO 51.6¢Risks 51.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.55u · WN2 −51.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	4.2%	—	—	85.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	68.7%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	57.8%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	58.1%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	41.6%	46.5%	0.1%	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	41.3%	67.0%	81.1%	—	58.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	67.7%	61.3%	81.6%	—	65.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	41.3%	11.5%	51.6%	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	43.4%	36.1%	46.7%	—	55.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	6.7%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	45.6%	45.6%	34.6%	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	40.2%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	23.0%	50.9%	71.8%	—	50.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	26.9%	52.8%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	5.6%	47.1%	59.6%	—	55.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	2.4%	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	7.4%	1.2%	84.9%	—	67.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	23.6%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	5.6%	12.5%	91.5%	—	51.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	4.0%	41.0%	0.0%	—	56.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	2.7%	0.0%	96.2%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	63.0%	19.9%	97.1%	—	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	76.4%	46.3%	95.1%	37.7%	68.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	73.1%	57.7%	92.8%	—	65.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	71.6%	36.8%	95.4%	72.7%	58.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	30.0%	83.6%	92.9%	—	65.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	65.5%	80.9%	86.2%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	66.2%	76.4%	87.2%	—	66.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	66.8%	89.0%	77.4%	57.9%	80.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	77.2%	90.1%	80.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	83%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0279
AIFS Single	74%	84.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0650
IFS Ensemble	68%	83.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	55%	82.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.2070
ICON	55%	81.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2070
WeatherNext 2	14%	78.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.7465

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗