KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

74%

68%

55%

14%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 48.4¢Risks 48.45u

WN2NO 51.6¢Risks 51.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +51.55u · WN2 −51.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:20:19+00:00	82.0%	68.4%	80.3%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:25+00:00	82.0%	68.4%	80.3%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	82.0%	68.4%	80.3%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:59+00:00	85.1%	68.4%	80.3%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	85.0%	68.4%	80.2%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:16+00:00	85.0%	67.7%	80.2%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:22+00:00	85.0%	67.7%	80.2%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:29+00:00	85.0%	67.7%	80.2%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:05+00:00	85.0%	67.7%	72.1%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	85.0%	67.7%	72.1%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:22+00:00	85.0%	67.7%	72.1%	56.9%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:36+00:00	75.7%	67.7%	72.1%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00	75.7%	67.7%	72.1%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00	75.7%	67.7%	72.1%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-11T21:59:04+00:00	75.7%	67.7%	72.1%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	75.7%	67.7%	72.1%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00	75.7%	67.7%	72.8%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:49+00:00	75.7%	67.7%	72.8%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:17+00:00	75.7%	67.7%	72.8%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:26+00:00	87.8%	67.7%	72.8%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:33+00:00	87.8%	67.7%	72.8%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	87.8%	67.7%	72.8%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T04:02:12+00:00	87.8%	67.7%	72.8%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:18+00:00	87.8%	67.7%	72.8%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	87.8%	67.7%	75.4%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	87.8%	67.7%	75.4%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:37+00:00	87.8%	67.7%	75.4%	60.0%	63.1%
2026-10-12T07:49:18+00:00	87.5%	67.7%	75.4%	63.1%	62.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	87.5%	67.7%	75.4%	63.1%	62.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:41+00:00	87.5%	67.7%	75.4%	63.1%	62.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	87.5%	67.7%	75.4%	63.1%	62.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:00	87.5%	67.7%	75.4%	63.1%	62.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:44+00:00	87.5%	67.7%	75.9%	63.1%	62.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	87.5%	41.3%	75.9%	63.1%	62.9%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	87.5%	41.3%	75.9%	63.1%	62.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:13+00:00	89.0%	41.3%	75.9%	63.1%	62.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	89.0%	41.4%	75.8%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:53+00:00	89.0%	41.4%	75.8%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	89.0%	38.1%	75.8%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	89.0%	38.1%	68.5%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:17+00:00	89.0%	38.1%	68.5%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:23+00:00	89.0%	38.1%	68.5%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	89.0%	38.1%	68.5%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	90.0%	38.1%	68.5%	86.7%	80.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	90.0%	38.1%	68.5%	86.7%	80.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	90.0%	38.1%	68.5%	86.7%	80.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	90.0%	38.1%	68.5%	86.7%	80.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:15+00:00	90.0%	38.1%	82.1%	86.7%	80.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	90.0%	38.1%	82.1%	86.7%	80.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	90.0%	38.1%	82.1%	86.7%	80.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	90.0%	38.1%	82.1%	86.7%	79.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:53+00:00	89.3%	38.1%	82.1%	86.7%	79.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	89.3%	38.1%	82.1%	86.7%	79.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	89.3%	38.1%	82.1%	86.7%	79.9%
2026-10-13T15:42:00+00:00	90.2%	63.9%	73.7%	64.9%	60.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	90.2%	63.9%	73.7%	64.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	90.2%	63.9%	69.5%	64.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	90.2%	63.9%	69.5%	64.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	90.2%	63.9%	69.5%	64.6%	60.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	88.3%	63.9%	69.5%	64.6%	62.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	88.3%	63.9%	69.5%	64.6%	62.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	88.3%	63.9%	69.5%	64.6%	62.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	88.3%	63.9%	69.5%	64.6%	62.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	88.3%	63.9%	69.5%	73.6%	62.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	88.3%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	88.3%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	88.3%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:21+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:49+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	86.7%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	62.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:31+00:00	54.3%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	59.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	54.3%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	59.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	54.3%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	59.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	54.3%	63.9%	70.3%	73.9%	59.0%
2026-10-14T10:35:13+00:00	54.3%	63.9%	70.3%	28.8%	59.0%
2026-10-14T11:21:07+00:00	54.3%	50.0%	27.7%	28.8%	59.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	54.3%	50.0%	27.7%	28.8%	59.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	54.3%	50.0%	27.7%	28.8%	59.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	62.8%	50.0%	27.7%	28.8%	59.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	62.8%	50.0%	27.7%	28.8%	59.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	62.8%	49.3%	27.7%	28.8%	59.8%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	62.8%	49.3%	27.7%	28.8%	59.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	62.8%	49.3%	27.7%	28.8%	59.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	62.8%	49.3%	20.2%	28.8%	59.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	62.8%	49.3%	20.2%	28.8%	59.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	62.8%	49.3%	20.2%	28.8%	59.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00	46.5%	49.3%	20.2%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	46.5%	49.3%	20.2%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	46.5%	49.3%	20.2%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	46.5%	49.3%	20.2%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	46.5%	49.3%	20.2%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00	46.5%	49.3%	14.7%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:32+00:00	46.5%	49.3%	14.7%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	46.5%	49.3%	14.7%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	80.8%	49.3%	14.7%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	80.8%	49.3%	14.7%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	80.8%	49.3%	14.7%	45.2%	37.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:48+00:00	44.4%	58.1%	11.2%	62.3%	7.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	44.4%	58.1%	11.2%	62.3%	7.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	44.4%	58.1%	15.7%	62.3%	7.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	44.4%	58.1%	15.7%	62.3%	7.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	44.4%	58.1%	15.7%	62.3%	7.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	44.4%	58.1%	15.7%	62.3%	7.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	71.3%	58.1%	15.7%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	71.3%	58.1%	15.7%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	71.3%	58.1%	15.7%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	71.3%	58.1%	15.7%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	71.3%	58.1%	17.9%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	71.3%	58.1%	17.9%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:29+00:00	71.3%	58.1%	17.9%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	66.3%	58.1%	17.9%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:23+00:00	66.3%	58.1%	17.9%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	66.3%	58.1%	17.9%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	66.3%	58.1%	17.9%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-16T04:25:20+00:00	66.3%	58.1%	17.9%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	66.3%	58.1%	23.8%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-16T05:56:00+00:00	66.3%	58.1%	23.8%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	66.3%	58.1%	23.8%	79.6%	10.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	68.8%	58.1%	23.8%	79.6%	4.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	68.8%	58.1%	23.8%	79.6%	4.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	68.8%	58.1%	23.8%	79.6%	4.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:45+00:00	68.8%	58.1%	23.8%	79.6%	4.2%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	68.8%	58.1%	23.8%	79.6%	4.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	68.8%	56.2%	21.9%	79.6%	4.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	68.8%	56.2%	21.9%	79.6%	4.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	68.8%	56.2%	21.9%	79.6%	4.2%
2026-10-16T13:29:09+00:00	74.6%	56.2%	21.9%	76.0%	4.2%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	74.6%	56.2%	21.9%	76.0%	4.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	74.6%	56.2%	21.9%	76.0%	4.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	74.6%	56.2%	21.9%	76.0%	4.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	74.6%	56.2%	21.9%	76.0%	4.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:34+00:00	74.6%	56.2%	21.0%	76.0%	4.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	74.6%	56.2%	21.0%	76.0%	4.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	74.6%	56.2%	21.0%	76.0%	4.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	61.6%	56.2%	21.0%	76.0%	2.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	61.6%	56.2%	21.0%	76.0%	2.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	61.6%	56.2%	21.0%	76.0%	2.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	61.6%	56.2%	21.0%	76.0%	2.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	61.6%	56.2%	21.0%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	61.6%	56.2%	9.3%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:46+00:00	61.6%	56.2%	9.3%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:02+00:00	61.6%	56.2%	9.3%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	59.7%	56.2%	9.3%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	59.7%	56.2%	9.3%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	59.7%	56.2%	9.3%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	59.7%	56.2%	9.3%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	59.7%	56.2%	9.3%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:32+00:00	59.7%	56.2%	16.7%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	59.7%	56.2%	16.7%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	59.7%	56.2%	16.7%	63.4%	2.6%
2026-10-17T07:45:31+00:00	79.1%	56.2%	16.7%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	79.1%	56.2%	16.7%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	79.1%	56.2%	16.7%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	79.1%	56.2%	16.7%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	79.1%	56.2%	16.7%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	79.1%	69.1%	21.5%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	79.1%	69.1%	21.5%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	79.1%	69.1%	21.5%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	71.1%	69.1%	21.5%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	71.2%	68.8%	21.5%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:25+00:00	71.2%	67.6%	21.5%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	71.2%	67.6%	21.5%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	71.2%	67.6%	14.3%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	71.2%	67.6%	14.3%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	71.2%	67.6%	14.3%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	71.2%	67.6%	14.3%	98.6%	61.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	68.5%	67.6%	14.3%	83.3%	54.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	68.5%	67.6%	14.3%	83.3%	54.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	68.5%	67.6%	14.3%	83.3%	54.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	68.5%	67.6%	14.3%	83.3%	54.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	68.5%	67.6%	13.6%	83.3%	54.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	68.5%	67.5%	13.6%	83.3%	54.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	68.5%	67.5%	13.6%	83.3%	54.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	68.5%	67.5%	13.6%	83.3%	54.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	74.5%	67.5%	13.6%	83.3%	54.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	74.5%	67.5%	13.6%	83.3%	54.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	74.5%	67.5%	13.6%	83.3%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	83%	85.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0279
AIFS Single	74%	84.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0650
IFS Ensemble	68%	83.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	55%	82.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.2070
ICON	55%	81.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2070
WeatherNext 2	14%	78.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.7465

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗