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KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
8%
EPS
8%
ICON
8%
AIFS
5%
HRES
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 4.8¢Risks 1.19u
VS
HRESNO 95.2¢Risks 23.81u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.81u · HRES −23.81u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 27.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 26.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 28.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 30.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 12:0010-11 06:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0018.6%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0010.3%————51.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0045.2%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0032.5%————44.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0015.9%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0017.5%————30.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0038.5%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0031.6%————43.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0039.5%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0029.7%————27.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0039.0%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0031.1%————34.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0053.2%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.2%————32.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0020.4%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:005.0%————33.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:009.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:008.6%————25.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:003.0%————29.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0025.8%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0020.5%————40.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0026.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0029.2%—0.2%——43.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0011.7%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:002.3%—22.0%——31.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0010.6%—14.9%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0011.7%—13.4%——21.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0010.0%—6.7%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0012.1%—12.4%——18.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0014.2%—9.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:007.7%5.2%6.7%0.0%—9.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0016.1%—12.1%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0014.8%4.6%15.2%27.9%—10.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0016.0%—8.3%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0016.4%14.2%10.7%26.4%—12.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0015.0%—6.6%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0015.4%3.4%0.3%5.9%—7.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0013.5%—0.7%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0010.4%3.3%2.1%3.9%—6.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:008.5%0.1%3.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.5%3.1%3.1%1.6%—2.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.9%2.0%5.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.5%3.4%10.2%—3.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.7%0.6%3.4%——0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%2.1%4.4%—3.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.9%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.6%0.0%0.0%15.1%—5.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.2%0.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.0%20.6%—1.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.4%0.0%0.6%0.0%—1.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%28.9%—0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%1.9%0.1%30.4%—0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.3%3.7%0.5%19.9%0.2%2.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%2.4%0.8%12.8%—1.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%1.7%0.1%15.7%1.9%0.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%3.5%9.2%—0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.6%2.1%3.5%0.4%0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%1.0%2.9%—0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%2.6%0.8%0.1%1.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.5%2.1%0.7%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 28%83.7°F4.1°F2026-10-13 12:000.0064
IFS Ensemble8%83.1°F4.5°F2026-10-13 00:000.0059
ICON8%82.6°F4.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.0058
AIFS Single5%82.0°F4.6°F2026-10-14 00:000.0027
NWS forecast5%82.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 02:000.0022
National Blend2%82.0°F3.6°F2026-10-14 00:000.0004
IFS HRES2%78.7°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗