KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 4.8¢Risks 1.19u

HRESNO 95.2¢Risks 23.81u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.81u · HRES −23.81u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T10:35:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:58+00:00	30.1%	31.3%	36.7%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	30.1%	31.3%	36.7%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00	30.1%	31.3%	36.7%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00	30.1%	31.3%	36.7%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:29+00:00	30.1%	31.3%	36.7%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:19+00:00	30.1%	11.8%	22.0%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:25+00:00	30.1%	11.8%	22.0%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	30.1%	11.8%	22.0%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:59+00:00	34.6%	11.8%	22.0%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	34.7%	11.8%	22.1%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:16+00:00	34.7%	11.3%	22.1%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:22+00:00	34.7%	11.3%	22.1%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:29+00:00	34.7%	11.3%	22.1%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:05+00:00	34.7%	11.3%	15.1%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	34.7%	11.3%	15.1%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:22+00:00	34.7%	11.3%	15.1%	13.8%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:36+00:00	23.2%	11.3%	15.1%	15.6%	31.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00	23.2%	11.3%	15.1%	15.6%	31.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00	23.2%	11.3%	15.1%	15.6%	31.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:04+00:00	23.2%	11.3%	15.1%	15.6%	31.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	23.2%	11.3%	15.1%	15.6%	31.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00	23.2%	11.3%	15.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:49+00:00	23.2%	11.3%	15.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:17+00:00	23.2%	11.3%	15.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:26+00:00	39.4%	11.3%	15.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:33+00:00	39.4%	11.3%	15.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	39.4%	11.3%	15.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T04:02:12+00:00	39.4%	11.3%	15.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:18+00:00	39.4%	11.3%	15.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	39.4%	11.3%	17.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	39.4%	11.3%	17.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:37+00:00	39.4%	11.3%	17.6%	15.6%	31.7%
2026-10-12T07:49:18+00:00	36.0%	11.3%	17.6%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	36.0%	11.3%	17.6%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:41+00:00	36.0%	11.3%	17.6%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	36.0%	11.3%	17.6%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:00	36.0%	11.3%	17.6%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:44+00:00	36.0%	11.3%	14.6%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	36.0%	2.3%	14.6%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	36.0%	2.3%	14.6%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:13+00:00	38.9%	2.3%	14.6%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	38.9%	2.5%	14.7%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:53+00:00	38.9%	2.5%	14.7%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	38.9%	2.1%	14.7%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	38.9%	2.1%	10.2%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:17+00:00	38.9%	2.1%	10.2%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:23+00:00	38.9%	2.1%	10.2%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	38.9%	2.1%	10.2%	18.8%	20.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	41.1%	2.1%	10.2%	45.8%	38.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	41.1%	2.1%	10.2%	45.8%	38.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	41.1%	2.1%	10.2%	45.8%	38.2%
2026-10-12T22:14:00+00:00	41.1%	2.1%	10.2%	45.8%	38.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:15+00:00	41.1%	2.1%	20.3%	45.8%	38.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	41.1%	2.1%	20.3%	45.8%	38.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	41.1%	2.1%	20.3%	45.8%	38.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	41.1%	2.1%	20.3%	45.8%	38.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:53+00:00	39.6%	2.1%	20.3%	45.8%	38.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	39.6%	2.1%	20.3%	45.8%	38.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	39.6%	2.1%	20.3%	45.8%	38.3%
2026-10-13T04:16:40+00:00	39.6%	2.1%	20.3%	45.8%	38.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	39.6%	2.1%	13.2%	45.8%	38.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	39.6%	2.1%	13.2%	45.8%	38.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	39.6%	2.1%	13.2%	45.8%	38.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:21+00:00	39.6%	2.1%	13.2%	45.8%	38.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00	40.3%	2.1%	13.2%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	40.3%	2.1%	13.2%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	40.3%	2.1%	13.2%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	40.3%	2.1%	13.2%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:30+00:00	40.3%	8.8%	9.3%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	40.3%	8.8%	9.3%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	40.3%	8.8%	9.3%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	40.3%	8.8%	9.3%	15.7%	13.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	37.3%	8.8%	9.4%	15.7%	13.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	37.3%	7.7%	9.4%	15.7%	13.5%
2026-10-13T15:42:00+00:00	37.3%	7.7%	9.4%	15.7%	13.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	37.3%	7.7%	9.4%	16.1%	13.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	37.3%	7.7%	7.6%	16.1%	13.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	37.3%	7.7%	7.6%	16.1%	13.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	37.3%	7.7%	7.6%	16.1%	13.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	33.6%	7.7%	7.6%	16.1%	14.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	33.6%	7.7%	7.6%	16.1%	14.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	33.6%	7.7%	7.6%	16.1%	14.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	33.6%	7.7%	7.6%	16.1%	14.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	33.6%	7.7%	7.6%	23.2%	14.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	33.6%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	33.6%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	33.6%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	30.7%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	30.7%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-14T03:00:21+00:00	30.7%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	30.7%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:49+00:00	30.7%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	30.7%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	30.7%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	30.7%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	14.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:31+00:00	5.2%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	7.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	5.2%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	7.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	5.2%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	7.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	5.2%	7.7%	8.0%	22.8%	7.6%
2026-10-14T10:35:13+00:00	5.2%	7.7%	8.0%	1.5%	7.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	8%	83.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0064
IFS Ensemble	8%	83.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0059
ICON	8%	82.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0058
AIFS Single	5%	82.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0027
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0022
National Blend	2%	82.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0004
IFS HRES	2%	78.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗