KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 94°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 04:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

19%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.9¢Risks 11.95u

EPSNO 88.1¢Risks 88.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +88.05u · EPS −88.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	8.1%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	3.4%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.0%	1.4%	0.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	0.8%	3.9%	9.3%	—	2.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	3.3%	2.2%	8.1%	—	2.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.4%	0.0%	0.9%	—	1.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.4%	0.2%	0.5%	—	0.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.0%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	1.4%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	4.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	4.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	1.8%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	88.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0562
ICON	19%	87.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0372
AIFS Single	16%	88.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0240
WeatherNext 2	4%	85.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0019
NWS forecast	3%	84.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0010
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 94°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE94
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 94°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗