KTUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 94°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 04:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

19%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.9¢Risks 11.95u

EPSNO 88.1¢Risks 88.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +88.05u · EPS −88.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T04:16:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:58+00:00	10.8%	7.8%	13.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	10.8%	7.8%	13.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00	10.8%	7.8%	13.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:19+00:00	10.8%	7.8%	13.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:29+00:00	10.8%	7.8%	13.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:19+00:00	10.8%	2.2%	5.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:25+00:00	10.8%	2.2%	5.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	10.8%	2.2%	5.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:59+00:00	13.3%	2.2%	5.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	13.4%	2.2%	5.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:16+00:00	13.4%	2.1%	5.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:22+00:00	13.4%	2.1%	5.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:29+00:00	13.4%	2.1%	5.7%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:05+00:00	13.4%	2.1%	3.3%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	13.4%	2.1%	3.3%	4.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:22+00:00	13.4%	2.1%	3.3%	4.3%	—
2026-10-12T01:45:26+00:00	16.3%	2.1%	3.5%	5.0%	18.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:33+00:00	16.3%	2.1%	3.5%	5.0%	18.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	16.3%	2.1%	3.5%	5.0%	18.9%
2026-10-12T04:02:12+00:00	16.3%	2.1%	3.5%	5.0%	18.9%
2026-10-12T04:47:18+00:00	16.3%	2.1%	3.5%	5.0%	18.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:44+00:00	13.3%	2.1%	2.7%	6.8%	8.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	16.4%	0.2%	1.6%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	16.4%	0.2%	1.6%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	16.4%	0.2%	1.6%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	16.4%	0.2%	1.6%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:15+00:00	16.4%	0.2%	4.4%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	16.4%	0.2%	4.4%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	16.4%	0.2%	4.4%	23.7%	19.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	16.4%	0.2%	4.4%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:53+00:00	15.5%	0.2%	4.4%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	15.5%	0.2%	4.4%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	15.5%	0.2%	4.4%	23.7%	19.3%
2026-10-13T04:16:40+00:00	15.5%	0.2%	4.4%	23.7%	19.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	88.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0562
ICON	19%	87.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0372
AIFS Single	16%	88.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0240
WeatherNext 2	4%	85.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0019
NWS forecast	3%	84.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0010
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 94°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE94
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 94°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗