KTUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

63%

35%

29%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.3¢Risks 49.35u

WN2NO 50.7¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.65u · WN2 −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	3.4%	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	22.6%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	0.1%	57.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	74.3%	66.4%	0.4%	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	62.3%	44.9%	61.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	62.7%	72.4%	38.0%	—	65.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	55.6%	74.5%	20.1%	—	57.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	46.7%	36.1%	23.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	9.9%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	43.9%	43.9%	79.2%	—	65.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	32.6%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	17.8%	42.7%	82.8%	—	66.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	32.6%	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	52.9%	20.3%	79.7%	—	52.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	58.9%	21.1%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	22.7%	11.8%	82.4%	—	66.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	60.5%	32.6%	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	50.0%	41.3%	77.8%	0.0%	73.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	62.2%	68.5%	0.0%	—	76.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	34.1%	69.0%	79.3%	11.6%	61.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	45.2%	74.7%	50.0%	—	69.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	20.8%	73.4%	57.4%	—	65.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	25.9%	68.7%	42.3%	—	60.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	48.7%	39.4%	12.7%	0.6%	40.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	51.4%	28.8%	19.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	62.8%	35.8%	14.6%	0.1%	40.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	38.1%	29.8%	18.1%	—	15.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	8.3%	42.1%	25.0%	22.6%	21.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	22.8%	75.9%	20.3%	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	70%	85.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0924
IFS Ensemble	68%	85.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0992
AIFS Single	63%	84.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1376
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.3136
ICON	35%	82.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.4264
WeatherNext 2	29%	81.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.5027

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗