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KTUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
83%
WN2
80%
HRES
70%
EPS
66%
ICON
7%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 45.1¢Risks 45.10u
VS
ICONNO 54.9¢Risks 54.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.90u · ICON −54.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-12T07:49:18+00:00AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:41+00:00AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-12T07:49:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-12T07:49:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-12T07:49:18+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:41+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00IFS HRES: 70.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T07:49:18+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:41+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:0010-12 07:4910-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:49:18+00:0083.3%65.5%79.6%70.4%6.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:0083.3%65.5%79.6%70.4%6.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:41+00:0083.3%65.5%79.6%70.4%6.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:0083.3%65.5%79.6%70.4%6.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:15+00:0083.3%65.5%79.6%70.4%6.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single83%89.9°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 280%88.9°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
IFS HRES70%87.9°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%86.1°F4.0°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
National Blend55%85.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON7%69.9°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 85°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗