KTUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

70%

66%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.1¢Risks 45.10u

ICONNO 54.9¢Risks 54.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.90u · ICON −54.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	2.4%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	0.1%	50.7%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	68.3%	59.7%	0.2%	—	64.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	55.1%	37.8%	54.4%	—	60.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	55.3%	65.6%	30.9%	—	58.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	47.6%	67.7%	14.9%	—	49.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	38.5%	28.6%	17.3%	—	59.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	6.7%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	35.4%	35.4%	72.4%	—	57.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	24.9%	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	12.4%	33.9%	76.3%	—	57.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	24.6%	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	43.2%	14.2%	72.1%	—	43.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	49.0%	14.6%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	15.7%	7.4%	74.9%	—	56.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	50.0%	23.6%	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	39.2%	31.1%	68.9%	0.0%	63.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	51.1%	57.8%	0.0%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	24.2%	58.1%	70.0%	6.8%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	33.6%	64.1%	38.1%	—	58.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	13.0%	62.3%	45.0%	—	53.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	16.6%	56.4%	30.2%	—	47.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	35.6%	27.3%	7.0%	0.2%	28.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	37.7%	18.2%	11.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	48.5%	23.4%	7.8%	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	89.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	88.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	87.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	86.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	85.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	69.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 85°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗