KTUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

48%

43%

24%

17%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.9¢Risks 32.90u

ICONNO 67.1¢Risks 67.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.10u · ICON −67.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	1.7%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	14.1%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	0.0%	43.9%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	39.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	61.8%	52.8%	0.1%	—	57.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	47.8%	31.0%	47.1%	—	52.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	47.7%	58.3%	24.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	39.7%	60.3%	10.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	30.8%	21.9%	12.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	4.3%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	27.7%	27.7%	64.6%	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	18.4%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	8.3%	25.9%	68.6%	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	17.7%	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	33.9%	9.4%	63.4%	—	33.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	39.1%	9.6%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	10.3%	4.4%	66.0%	—	45.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	39.5%	16.3%	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	29.2%	22.1%	58.7%	0.0%	53.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	40.0%	46.6%	0.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	16.0%	46.5%	59.2%	3.8%	38.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	23.4%	52.4%	27.3%	—	46.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	7.5%	50.0%	33.1%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	9.8%	43.6%	20.0%	—	34.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	24.0%	17.3%	3.5%	0.1%	18.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	25.3%	10.4%	5.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	34.5%	13.8%	3.7%	0.0%	16.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	14.4%	9.9%	4.8%	—	3.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.5%	16.1%	7.1%	6.1%	5.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.8%	45.1%	4.9%	—	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.3481
IFS HRES	49%	85.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.2391
IFS Ensemble	48%	85.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2294
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1945
AIFS Single	43%	84.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1840
WeatherNext 2	24%	83.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0552
ICON	17%	82.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0286

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗