KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 13 · 10:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

75%

74%

65%

11%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.9¢Risks 50.85u

ICONNO 49.1¢Risks 49.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.15u · ICON −49.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	75.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	74.1%	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	42.9%	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	0.2%	57.4%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	79.1%	65.7%	0.1%	—	65.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	47.8%	72.2%	56.6%	—	65.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	53.0%	59.8%	8.4%	—	76.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	32.3%	54.0%	91.9%	—	73.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	25.1%	63.1%	85.7%	—	72.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	15.7%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	78.6%	54.4%	86.4%	—	57.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	80.4%	60.7%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	81.0%	54.6%	96.1%	—	79.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	93.0%	68.2%	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	94.4%	76.0%	97.5%	—	89.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	97.2%	81.7%	—	—	93.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	95.1%	85.5%	99.5%	0.0%	90.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	94.2%	91.6%	—	—	91.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	84.5%	93.0%	99.4%	—	92.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	76.0%	95.2%	0.0%	—	93.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	78.5%	96.2%	99.6%	0.0%	95.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	93.0%	98.0%	97.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	95.4%	98.3%	97.2%	73.4%	87.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	93.2%	98.6%	98.1%	—	86.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	92.6%	99.2%	98.4%	74.9%	88.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	97.3%	99.1%	97.3%	—	87.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	96.5%	99.6%	91.1%	76.6%	96.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	99.8%	93.0%	—	96.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	87.5°F	3.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	86.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	86.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	84.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	83.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	70.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 83°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗