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KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 13 · 10:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
91%
WN2
75%
AIFS
74%
HRES
65%
ICON
11%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 50.9¢Risks 50.85u
VS
ICONNO 49.1¢Risks 49.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.15u · ICON −49.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.6% · 2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.6% · 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00IFS HRES: 64.7% · 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:0010-13 08:0410-13 09:3410-13 10:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:04:33+00:0074.5%90.6%74.9%64.7%11.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:0074.5%90.6%74.9%64.7%11.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:0074.5%90.6%74.9%64.7%11.1%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:0074.5%90.6%74.9%64.7%11.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble91%87.5°F3.8°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%86.1°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
AIFS Single74%86.2°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
IFS HRES65%84.9°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend55%83.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON11%70.4°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 83°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗