KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

87%

87%

82%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 90.2¢Risks 45.10u

AIFSNO 9.8¢Risks 4.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +4.90u · AIFS −4.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:30+00:00	68.5%	82.9%	60.3%	58.7%	9.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	68.5%	82.9%	60.3%	58.7%	9.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	68.5%	82.9%	60.3%	58.7%	9.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	68.5%	82.9%	60.3%	58.7%	9.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	67.2%	82.9%	60.3%	58.7%	9.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	67.2%	81.0%	60.3%	58.7%	9.4%
2026-10-13T15:42:00+00:00	67.2%	81.0%	60.3%	58.7%	9.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	67.2%	81.0%	60.3%	58.7%	9.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	67.2%	81.0%	63.4%	58.7%	9.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	67.2%	81.0%	63.4%	58.7%	9.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	67.2%	81.0%	63.4%	58.7%	9.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	57.8%	81.0%	63.4%	58.7%	79.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	57.8%	81.0%	63.4%	58.7%	79.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	57.8%	81.0%	63.4%	58.7%	79.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	57.8%	81.0%	63.4%	58.7%	79.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	57.8%	81.0%	63.4%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	57.8%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	57.8%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	57.8%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	45.0%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	45.0%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:21+00:00	45.0%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:42+00:00	45.0%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:49+00:00	45.0%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	45.0%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:03+00:00	45.0%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	45.0%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	79.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:31+00:00	35.3%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	62.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	35.3%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	62.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:50+00:00	35.3%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	62.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	35.3%	81.0%	72.0%	67.1%	62.8%
2026-10-14T10:35:14+00:00	35.3%	81.0%	72.0%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T11:21:08+00:00	35.3%	66.0%	47.4%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	35.3%	66.0%	47.4%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	35.3%	66.0%	47.4%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	48.5%	66.0%	47.4%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	49.3%	66.0%	47.4%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	49.3%	65.5%	47.4%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	49.3%	65.5%	47.4%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	49.3%	65.5%	47.4%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	49.3%	65.5%	50.9%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	49.3%	65.5%	50.9%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	49.3%	65.5%	50.9%	61.4%	62.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00	63.1%	65.5%	50.9%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	63.1%	65.5%	50.9%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	63.1%	65.5%	50.9%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	63.1%	65.5%	50.9%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	63.1%	65.5%	50.9%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00	63.1%	65.5%	45.7%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:32+00:00	63.1%	65.5%	45.7%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	63.1%	65.5%	45.7%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	67.9%	65.5%	45.7%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	67.9%	65.5%	45.7%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	67.9%	65.5%	45.7%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:45+00:00	67.9%	65.5%	45.7%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:14+00:00	67.9%	65.5%	45.7%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	67.9%	65.5%	56.0%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	67.9%	65.5%	56.0%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	67.9%	65.5%	56.0%	85.6%	66.5%
2026-10-15T07:50:46+00:00	32.2%	65.5%	56.0%	71.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	32.2%	65.5%	56.0%	71.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	32.2%	65.5%	56.0%	71.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:45+00:00	32.2%	65.5%	56.0%	71.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:55+00:00	32.2%	65.5%	38.5%	71.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:46+00:00	32.2%	65.5%	38.5%	71.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	32.2%	79.7%	38.5%	71.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:45+00:00	32.2%	79.7%	38.5%	71.0%	45.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:59+00:00	61.1%	79.7%	38.5%	71.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:29+00:00	61.1%	79.7%	38.5%	71.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:48+00:00	61.1%	77.8%	38.5%	71.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	61.1%	77.8%	38.5%	71.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	61.1%	77.8%	48.1%	71.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	61.1%	77.8%	48.1%	71.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	61.1%	77.8%	48.1%	71.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	61.1%	77.8%	48.1%	71.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	60.3%	77.8%	48.1%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	60.3%	77.8%	48.1%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	60.3%	77.8%	48.1%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	60.3%	77.8%	48.1%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	60.3%	77.8%	56.8%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	60.3%	77.8%	56.8%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:29+00:00	60.3%	77.8%	56.8%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	50.0%	77.8%	56.8%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:23+00:00	50.0%	77.8%	56.8%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	50.0%	77.8%	56.8%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	50.0%	77.8%	56.8%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T04:25:20+00:00	50.0%	77.8%	56.8%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	50.0%	77.8%	51.0%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T05:56:00+00:00	50.0%	77.8%	51.0%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	50.0%	77.8%	51.0%	91.4%	40.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	45.7%	77.8%	51.0%	91.4%	81.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	45.7%	77.8%	51.0%	91.4%	81.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	45.7%	77.8%	51.0%	91.4%	81.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:45+00:00	45.7%	77.8%	51.0%	91.4%	81.2%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	45.7%	77.8%	51.0%	91.4%	81.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	45.7%	66.6%	39.4%	91.4%	81.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	45.7%	66.6%	39.4%	91.4%	81.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	45.7%	66.6%	39.4%	91.4%	81.2%
2026-10-16T13:29:09+00:00	72.2%	66.6%	39.4%	61.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	72.2%	66.5%	39.4%	61.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	72.2%	66.9%	39.4%	61.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	72.2%	66.9%	39.4%	61.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	72.2%	66.9%	39.4%	61.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:34+00:00	72.2%	66.9%	44.7%	61.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	72.2%	66.9%	44.7%	61.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	72.2%	66.9%	44.7%	61.8%	81.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	82.0%	66.9%	44.7%	61.8%	82.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	82.0%	66.9%	44.7%	61.8%	82.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	82.0%	66.9%	44.7%	61.8%	82.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	82.0%	66.9%	44.7%	61.8%	82.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	82.0%	66.9%	44.7%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	82.0%	66.9%	74.9%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:46+00:00	82.0%	66.9%	74.9%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T00:55:02+00:00	82.0%	66.9%	74.9%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	83.7%	66.9%	74.9%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	83.7%	66.9%	74.9%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	83.7%	66.9%	74.9%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	83.7%	66.9%	74.9%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	83.7%	66.9%	74.9%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:32+00:00	83.7%	66.9%	80.5%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	83.7%	66.9%	80.5%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	83.7%	66.9%	80.5%	92.8%	82.3%
2026-10-17T07:45:31+00:00	90.1%	66.9%	80.5%	97.9%	94.1%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	90.1%	66.9%	80.5%	97.9%	94.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	90.1%	66.9%	80.5%	97.9%	94.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	90.1%	66.9%	80.5%	97.9%	94.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	90.1%	66.9%	80.5%	97.9%	94.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	90.1%	87.6%	87.0%	97.9%	94.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	90.1%	87.6%	87.0%	97.9%	94.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	90.1%	87.6%	87.0%	97.9%	94.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	82.5%	87.6%	87.0%	97.9%	94.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	82.5%	87.1%	87.0%	97.9%	94.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	92.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	94%	89.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	88.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	87.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	87.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗