KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

87%

87%

82%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 90.2¢Risks 45.10u

AIFSNO 9.8¢Risks 4.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +4.90u · AIFS −4.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	70.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	68.7%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	36.6%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	0.1%	50.7%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	73.7%	59.1%	0.1%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	40.6%	65.7%	49.3%	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	45.4%	52.3%	5.8%	—	69.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	25.5%	46.0%	88.5%	—	66.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	18.9%	55.0%	80.5%	—	64.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	11.1%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	71.6%	45.6%	81.0%	—	49.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	73.6%	51.8%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	74.1%	45.4%	93.7%	—	72.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	89.1%	59.4%	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	91.0%	67.8%	95.6%	—	84.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	95.1%	74.3%	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	91.8%	78.8%	98.9%	0.0%	84.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	90.4%	86.8%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	77.0%	88.6%	98.7%	—	87.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	66.4%	91.7%	0.0%	—	89.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	69.0%	93.2%	99.0%	0.0%	92.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	88.0%	96.0%	95.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	91.5%	96.5%	94.5%	62.3%	80.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	87.8%	97.0%	96.0%	—	78.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	86.6%	98.1%	96.5%	63.2%	80.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	94.2%	97.9%	94.2%	—	78.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	92.7%	99.0%	83.7%	64.2%	92.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	99.5%	86.4%	—	92.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	99.8%	—	34.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	92.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	94%	89.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	88.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	87.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	87.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗