KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

42%

34%

33%

18%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 42.4¢Risks 42.40u

ICONNO 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.60u · ICON −57.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:14:02+00:00	38.0%	32.8%	52.7%	60.6%	30.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	38.0%	32.8%	52.7%	60.6%	30.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	38.0%	32.8%	52.7%	60.6%	30.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	38.0%	32.8%	34.0%	60.6%	30.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	38.0%	32.8%	34.0%	60.6%	30.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	38.0%	32.8%	34.0%	60.6%	30.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:20+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	51.4%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	51.4%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	51.4%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	51.4%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	51.4%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	51.4%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	51.4%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	51.4%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	39.0%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	20.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	42.3%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	42.3%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	42.3%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	18.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	42.3%	32.8%	34.0%	66.7%	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	67%	90.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	87.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	87.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	85.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 19 · 15:14 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 89°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗