KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

42%

34%

33%

18%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 42.4¢Risks 42.40u

ICONNO 57.6¢Risks 57.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.60u · ICON −57.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	38.2%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	12.3%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.0%	20.3%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	40.3%	25.7%	0.0%	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	12.4%	30.4%	17.5%	—	24.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	14.2%	18.4%	0.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.9%	13.6%	57.9%	—	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	2.7%	17.8%	42.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.1%	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	29.9%	11.3%	41.3%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	31.0%	14.0%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	30.6%	10.2%	64.4%	—	28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	51.9%	17.1%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	54.9%	22.5%	68.7%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	65.6%	27.4%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	54.1%	31.2%	84.3%	0.0%	39.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	48.9%	41.6%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	26.4%	43.5%	80.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	16.1%	48.9%	0.0%	—	43.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	16.8%	51.2%	81.0%	0.0%	47.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	37.0%	59.5%	58.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	42.6%	59.9%	51.2%	10.6%	23.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	32.5%	60.2%	55.1%	—	20.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	28.4%	65.7%	55.4%	8.9%	20.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	43.1%	61.0%	43.1%	—	17.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	35.8%	69.5%	20.2%	7.3%	35.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	74.0%	21.3%	—	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	67%	90.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	87.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	87.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	85.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 19 · 15:14 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 89°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗