KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

30%

24%

22%

12%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

ICONNO 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +66.00u · ICON −66.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	32.4%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	9.3%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.0%	15.9%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	33.6%	20.4%	0.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	9.0%	24.3%	13.2%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	10.3%	13.8%	0.3%	—	26.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	3.1%	9.7%	50.0%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	1.6%	12.9%	34.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.6%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	22.8%	7.7%	33.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	23.5%	9.6%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	23.0%	6.6%	55.5%	—	21.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	42.5%	11.8%	—	—	27.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	45.1%	15.9%	59.6%	—	32.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	56.0%	19.7%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	43.9%	22.7%	77.3%	0.0%	30.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	38.5%	31.6%	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	18.3%	33.1%	71.8%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	10.2%	37.8%	0.0%	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	10.5%	39.6%	72.0%	0.0%	36.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	26.3%	47.6%	46.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	30.9%	47.5%	38.9%	5.9%	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	21.9%	47.4%	42.3%	—	12.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	18.2%	52.7%	42.0%	4.6%	12.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	30.0%	47.2%	30.0%	—	9.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	23.4%	55.8%	11.5%	3.5%	23.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	60.5%	12.0%	—	20.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	56%	90.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	87.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	87.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	12%	85.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗