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KTUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
26%
EPS
8%
AIFS
7%
WN2
4%
ICON
2%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 14.0¢Risks 13.95u
VS
ICONNO 86.1¢Risks 86.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +86.05u · ICON −86.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.6% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 27.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 28.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 31.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 49.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 40.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 38.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-13 00:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0017.5%————16.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0024.4%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0018.9%————22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0016.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0011.2%————18.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0014.3%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0027.4%————26.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0025.7%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0014.0%————20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:004.2%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0023.6%————27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0023.6%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0012.3%————31.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:004.9%————32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:006.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:006.1%————30.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0017.8%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:007.9%————23.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:005.3%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%————21.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:005.5%—13.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:007.4%————12.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:005.4%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:004.2%—17.6%——8.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:004.8%—21.1%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.6%—3.5%——14.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:003.5%—10.6%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:003.8%0.0%6.6%——6.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:003.2%—4.5%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.7%17.1%8.7%0.0%—8.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.6%—27.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.3%2.9%10.6%4.8%—7.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.6%—4.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.5%3.3%4.8%0.1%—11.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.8%—5.7%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.7%2.9%27.4%—8.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.8%—3.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.7%0.3%3.9%15.2%—6.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%1.1%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.1%8.0%1.8%13.6%—2.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.9%8.1%2.4%——5.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:002.1%7.6%1.4%28.9%—7.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:002.2%18.4%2.9%——9.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:003.4%19.7%4.2%31.3%—11.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.1%27.4%5.4%——15.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.3%17.6%6.4%49.0%0.0%9.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.7%13.8%10.1%——10.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.0%4.2%10.4%40.3%—9.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.6%1.7%12.3%0.0%—9.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.1%1.7%12.7%38.5%0.0%11.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.2%6.2%16.7%16.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.3%7.5%15.9%11.2%0.6%2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%4.0%15.0%12.2%—1.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.1%2.8%17.3%11.3%0.4%1.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.1%5.8%13.2%5.8%—1.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.1%3.5%17.2%1.1%0.2%3.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—19.2%1.0%—2.4%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——22.6%—0.0%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES26%90.1°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%86.7°F4.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single7%87.9°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast6%89.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%87.3°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend2%88.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON2%85.3°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261020-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗