KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

86%

83%

65%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 81.2¢Risks 81.20u

AIFSNO 18.8¢Risks 18.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +18.80u · AIFS −18.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	20.5%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	34.2%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	1.2%	81.5%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	85.9%	50.0%	0.2%	—	87.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	74.6%	70.3%	95.4%	—	78.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	52.3%	77.8%	55.3%	—	84.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	97.0%	86.9%	92.5%	—	76.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	85.2%	87.5%	74.9%	—	84.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	88.1%	96.2%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	80.4%	97.7%	85.4%	—	96.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	80.4%	98.5%	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	97.0%	99.3%	100.0%	—	98.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	77.6%	99.7%	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	49.0%	99.8%	98.8%	—	98.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	95.3%	37.2%	99.6%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	62.2%	99.1%	91.0%	—	99.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	98.0%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	99.5%	99.8%	99.6%	—	98.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	99.9%	99.8%	0.6%	—	97.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.0%	0.0%	98.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	—	98.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	99.9%	98.2%	97.5%	99.3%	99.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	99.5%	99.9%	—	99.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	91.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	85.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	89.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	83.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	80.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	79.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗