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KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
98%
EPS
94%
ICON
86%
WN2
83%
AIFS
65%
Consensus
88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 81.2¢Risks 81.20u
VS
AIFSNO 18.8¢Risks 18.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +18.80u · AIFS −18.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-14T11:21:08+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 73.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00AIFS Single: 73.3% · 2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00AIFS Single: 73.3% · 2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00AIFS Single: 73.3% · 2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.3% · 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00AIFS Single: 73.3% · 2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00AIFS Single: 73.3% · 2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00AIFS Single: 73.3% · 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-15T00:15:33+00:00AIFS Single: 84.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-14T11:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-15T00:15:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.6% · 2026-10-14T11:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.6% · 2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.6% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.1% · 2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T00:15:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T11:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00IFS HRES: 82.4% · 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T00:15:33+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-10-14T11:21:08+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T00:15:33+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00ICON: 85.9% · 2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:0010-14 11:2110-14 19:4310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T11:21:08+00:0041.5%93.7%65.6%82.4%18.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:0041.5%93.7%65.6%82.4%18.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:0041.5%93.7%65.6%82.4%18.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:0073.3%93.7%65.6%82.4%18.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:0073.3%93.7%65.5%82.4%19.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:0073.3%93.5%65.5%82.4%19.1%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:0073.3%93.5%65.5%82.4%19.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:0073.3%93.5%65.5%82.4%19.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:0073.3%93.5%75.8%82.4%19.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:0073.3%93.5%75.8%82.4%19.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:0073.3%93.5%75.8%82.4%19.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:0084.5%93.5%75.8%97.8%85.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:0084.5%93.5%75.8%97.8%85.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:0084.5%93.5%75.8%97.8%85.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:0084.5%93.5%75.8%97.8%85.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:0084.5%93.5%75.8%97.8%85.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:0084.5%93.5%83.1%97.8%85.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:33+00:0084.5%93.5%83.1%97.8%85.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:0084.5%93.5%83.1%97.8%85.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:0064.6%93.5%83.1%97.8%85.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:0064.6%93.5%83.1%97.8%85.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:0064.6%93.5%83.1%97.8%85.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES98%91.3°F6.3°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble94%85.9°F4.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON86%89.2°F9.9°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 283%83.3°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
AIFS Single65%80.6°F5.6°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
National Blend54%79.0°F5.3°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗