KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 16 · 14:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

87%

78%

78%

56%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

AIFSNO 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.80u · AIFS −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	75.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	59.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	16.6%	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	28.4%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.8%	76.7%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	81.6%	43.0%	0.1%	—	83.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	68.3%	63.6%	93.4%	—	72.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	44.7%	71.7%	47.7%	—	78.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	95.3%	82.1%	89.2%	—	69.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	79.9%	82.7%	67.8%	—	79.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	83.3%	94.1%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	90.3%	73.8%	96.2%	79.8%	—	95.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	73.6%	97.4%	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	95.0%	98.7%	99.9%	—	97.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	69.9%	99.3%	—	—	97.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	39.4%	99.6%	97.9%	—	97.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.4%	28.2%	99.1%	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	52.1%	98.3%	86.1%	—	98.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	96.2%	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	93.0%	98.9%	99.5%	99.2%	—	97.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	99.7%	99.6%	0.3%	—	96.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	99.9%	99.8%	97.8%	0.0%	97.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.0%	—	96.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	99.8%	96.3%	95.1%	98.3%	99.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	98.7%	99.7%	—	99.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	90.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	84.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	83.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	82.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	81.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	80.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗