KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 16 · 14:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

87%

78%

78%

56%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

AIFSNO 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.80u · AIFS −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:45+00:00	57.8%	90.4%	77.6%	96.9%	83.5%
2026-10-15T04:48:14+00:00	57.8%	90.4%	77.6%	96.9%	83.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	57.8%	90.4%	73.2%	96.9%	83.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	57.8%	90.4%	73.2%	96.9%	83.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	57.8%	90.4%	73.2%	96.9%	83.5%
2026-10-15T07:50:46+00:00	41.9%	90.4%	73.2%	83.1%	81.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	41.9%	90.4%	73.2%	83.1%	81.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	41.9%	90.4%	73.2%	83.1%	81.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:45+00:00	41.9%	90.4%	73.2%	83.1%	81.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:55+00:00	41.9%	90.4%	65.8%	83.1%	81.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:46+00:00	41.9%	90.4%	65.8%	83.1%	81.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	41.9%	90.0%	65.8%	83.1%	81.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:45+00:00	41.9%	90.0%	65.8%	83.1%	81.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:59+00:00	49.3%	89.9%	65.8%	83.0%	80.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:29+00:00	49.3%	89.9%	65.8%	83.0%	80.9%
2026-10-16T04:25:20+00:00	41.2%	89.0%	81.0%	92.3%	65.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	41.2%	89.0%	79.8%	92.3%	65.8%
2026-10-16T05:56:00+00:00	41.2%	89.0%	79.8%	92.3%	65.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	41.2%	89.0%	79.8%	92.3%	65.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	35.8%	89.0%	79.8%	92.3%	96.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	35.8%	89.0%	79.8%	92.3%	96.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	35.8%	89.0%	79.8%	92.3%	96.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:45+00:00	35.8%	89.0%	79.8%	92.3%	96.8%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	35.8%	89.0%	79.8%	92.3%	96.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	35.8%	87.0%	77.5%	92.3%	96.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	35.8%	87.0%	77.5%	92.3%	96.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	35.8%	87.0%	77.5%	92.3%	96.8%
2026-10-16T13:29:09+00:00	55.6%	87.0%	77.5%	77.7%	96.8%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	55.6%	87.0%	77.5%	77.7%	96.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	90.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	84.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	83.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	82.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	81.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	80.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗