KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

85%

82%

70%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.5¢Risks 83.55u

ICONNO 16.5¢Risks 16.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.45u · ICON −16.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	10.3%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	18.5%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.3%	65.2%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	70.8%	29.8%	0.0%	—	73.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	54.4%	49.3%	87.2%	—	59.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	30.3%	57.6%	33.0%	—	66.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	90.0%	69.8%	80.0%	—	54.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	66.2%	70.0%	51.7%	—	65.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	70.4%	87.2%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	57.8%	91.0%	65.4%	—	88.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	57.1%	93.2%	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	88.1%	96.1%	99.7%	—	93.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	51.9%	97.7%	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	22.5%	98.5%	93.8%	—	92.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	14.0%	97.0%	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	83.7%	32.1%	94.5%	71.5%	—	96.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	89.4%	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	95.8%	98.0%	96.9%	—	92.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	98.4%	98.0%	0.0%	—	88.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	99.5%	98.9%	92.4%	0.0%	92.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	99.3%	99.4%	95.7%	—	89.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	98.7%	87.6%	84.9%	93.3%	96.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	94.4%	98.4%	—	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	88.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	89.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	86.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	85.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	70%	84.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	84.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗