KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

85%

82%

70%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.5¢Risks 83.55u

ICONNO 16.5¢Risks 16.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.45u · ICON −16.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:48+00:00	34.8%	80.4%	49.1%	74.3%	72.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	34.8%	80.4%	49.1%	74.3%	72.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	34.8%	80.4%	65.8%	74.3%	72.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	34.8%	80.4%	65.8%	74.3%	72.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	34.8%	80.4%	65.8%	74.3%	72.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	34.8%	80.4%	65.8%	74.3%	72.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	22.9%	80.4%	65.8%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	22.9%	80.4%	65.8%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	22.9%	80.4%	65.8%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	22.9%	80.4%	65.8%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	22.9%	80.4%	67.4%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	22.9%	80.4%	67.4%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:29+00:00	22.9%	80.4%	67.4%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	27.6%	80.4%	67.4%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:23+00:00	27.6%	80.4%	67.4%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	27.6%	80.4%	67.4%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	27.6%	80.4%	67.4%	86.9%	55.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	39.7%	77.0%	60.6%	66.1%	93.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	39.7%	77.0%	60.6%	66.1%	93.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	39.7%	77.0%	60.6%	66.1%	93.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:34+00:00	39.7%	77.0%	74.4%	66.1%	93.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	39.7%	77.0%	74.4%	66.1%	93.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	39.7%	77.0%	74.4%	66.1%	93.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	74.4%	66.1%	78.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	74.4%	66.1%	78.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	74.4%	66.1%	78.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	74.4%	66.1%	78.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:12+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	74.4%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	91.3%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:46+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	91.3%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T00:55:02+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	91.3%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	91.3%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	91.3%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	91.3%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	91.3%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	91.3%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:32+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	90.1%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	90.1%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	64.2%	77.0%	90.1%	93.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T07:45:31+00:00	96.3%	77.0%	90.1%	85.1%	70.4%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	96.3%	77.0%	90.1%	85.1%	70.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	96.3%	77.0%	90.1%	85.1%	70.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	96.3%	77.0%	90.1%	85.1%	70.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:00	96.3%	77.0%	90.1%	85.1%	70.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	96.3%	95.3%	96.8%	85.1%	70.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	96.3%	95.3%	96.8%	85.1%	70.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	96.3%	95.3%	96.8%	85.1%	70.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	82.0%	95.3%	96.8%	85.1%	70.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	82.0%	95.1%	96.8%	85.1%	70.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	88.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	89.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	86.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	85.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	70%	84.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	84.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗