KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

51%

46%

41%

38%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.1¢Risks 22.53u

ICONNO 54.9¢Risks 27.47u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.47u · ICON −27.47u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	2.1%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	21.3%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	24.6%	3.9%	0.0%	—	26.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	12.0%	9.6%	44.2%	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	12.5%	3.8%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	45.2%	18.9%	28.8%	—	10.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	14.8%	17.3%	7.7%	—	14.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	16.7%	35.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	9.0%	42.2%	12.7%	—	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	8.1%	46.4%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	33.0%	55.5%	86.1%	—	47.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	5.3%	63.0%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	0.7%	67.8%	43.2%	—	39.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	55.0%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	1.2%	41.8%	10.8%	—	49.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	27.1%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	42.4%	55.5%	47.8%	—	31.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	56.7%	53.4%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	69.0%	59.2%	27.0%	0.0%	26.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	63.0%	66.4%	34.7%	—	19.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	51.2%	15.1%	12.4%	24.6%	34.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	24.8%	44.9%	—	31.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	88.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	88.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	88.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	87.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 89°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗