KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

51%

46%

41%

38%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.1¢Risks 22.53u

ICONNO 54.9¢Risks 27.47u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.47u · ICON −27.47u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:00	63.7%	54.8%	72.4%	72.0%	2.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	63.7%	54.8%	78.8%	72.0%	2.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	63.7%	54.8%	78.8%	72.0%	2.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	63.7%	54.8%	78.8%	72.0%	2.1%
2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00	54.9%	54.8%	78.8%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	54.9%	54.8%	78.8%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	54.9%	54.8%	78.8%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	54.9%	54.8%	78.8%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	54.9%	54.8%	78.8%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	54.9%	46.1%	78.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	54.9%	46.1%	78.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	54.9%	46.1%	78.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	42.2%	46.1%	78.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	42.2%	46.1%	78.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T15:14:03+00:00	42.2%	47.0%	78.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	42.2%	47.0%	78.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	42.2%	47.0%	78.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	42.2%	47.0%	74.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	42.2%	47.0%	74.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	42.2%	47.0%	74.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	47.0%	47.0%	74.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	47.0%	47.0%	74.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	47.0%	47.0%	74.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	47.0%	47.0%	74.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:21+00:00	47.0%	47.0%	74.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	47.0%	47.0%	78.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	47.0%	47.0%	78.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	47.0%	47.0%	78.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	40.2%	47.0%	78.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	40.2%	47.0%	78.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	40.2%	47.0%	78.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00	40.2%	47.0%	78.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	40.2%	47.0%	78.1%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	40.2%	47.0%	66.3%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	40.2%	47.0%	66.3%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	40.2%	47.0%	66.3%	77.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	40.9%	47.0%	66.3%	77.5%	37.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	40.9%	47.0%	66.3%	77.5%	37.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	40.9%	47.0%	66.3%	77.5%	37.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	40.9%	47.0%	66.3%	77.5%	37.8%
2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00	40.9%	52.3%	51.4%	45.7%	37.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00	40.9%	52.3%	51.4%	45.7%	37.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	40.9%	52.3%	51.4%	45.7%	37.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	40.9%	52.3%	51.4%	45.7%	37.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	40.9%	52.3%	51.4%	45.7%	37.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	40.9%	52.3%	51.4%	45.7%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	88.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	88.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	88.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	38%	87.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 89°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗