KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

38%

35%

31%

28%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.2¢Risks 17.10u

ICONNO 65.8¢Risks 32.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +32.90u · ICON −32.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	1.4%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	16.7%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	19.4%	2.6%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.7%	6.9%	37.1%	—	10.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.0%	9.0%	2.4%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	37.5%	14.0%	22.4%	—	6.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	10.4%	12.5%	5.1%	—	10.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.9%	28.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	5.9%	33.8%	8.6%	—	29.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	5.2%	37.6%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	25.1%	46.3%	80.4%	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	3.2%	53.8%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	0.3%	58.7%	33.9%	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	0.1%	45.0%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.6%	32.1%	6.7%	—	38.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	19.0%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	32.1%	44.5%	37.1%	—	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	45.5%	42.2%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	58.1%	47.7%	18.3%	0.0%	17.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	51.2%	54.8%	24.4%	—	12.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	38.9%	8.9%	7.1%	15.9%	23.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	15.8%	32.5%	—	20.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	44%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	88.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	88.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	88.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	87.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗