KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

12%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 10.5¢Risks 2.61u

ICONNO 89.5¢Risks 22.39u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.39u · ICON −22.39u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	7.0%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	8.2%	0.7%	0.0%	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.8%	2.1%	18.9%	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	2.8%	0.5%	—	4.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.9%	4.7%	8.7%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.0%	3.8%	1.2%	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.4%	11.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	1.3%	14.1%	2.2%	—	11.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.1%	16.1%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	8.6%	21.6%	56.4%	—	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.5%	26.9%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.0%	30.4%	12.6%	—	10.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.0%	19.0%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.1%	10.8%	1.2%	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	4.7%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	9.9%	16.9%	12.5%	—	5.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	16.8%	14.8%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	25.1%	17.5%	3.8%	0.0%	3.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	19.1%	21.6%	5.5%	—	2.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	11.2%	1.1%	0.8%	2.6%	4.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.4%	7.7%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	15%	88.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	88.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	88.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	87.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 14 · 19:43 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗