KTUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

12%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 10.5¢Risks 2.61u

ICONNO 89.5¢Risks 22.39u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.39u · ICON −22.39u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00	7.0%	8.9%	1.8%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	7.0%	8.9%	1.8%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	7.0%	8.9%	1.8%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	7.0%	8.9%	1.8%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	7.0%	8.9%	1.8%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:36+00:00	7.0%	8.9%	3.3%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:33+00:00	7.0%	8.9%	3.3%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	7.0%	8.9%	3.3%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	1.7%	8.9%	3.3%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	1.7%	8.9%	3.3%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	1.7%	8.9%	3.3%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:46+00:00	1.7%	8.9%	3.3%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:14+00:00	1.7%	8.9%	3.3%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	1.7%	8.9%	2.4%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	1.7%	8.9%	2.4%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	1.7%	8.9%	2.4%	42.5%	37.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:46+00:00	0.4%	8.9%	2.4%	15.4%	16.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	0.4%	8.9%	2.4%	15.4%	16.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	0.4%	8.9%	2.4%	15.4%	16.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:45+00:00	0.4%	8.9%	2.4%	15.4%	16.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:55+00:00	0.4%	8.9%	0.9%	15.4%	16.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:46+00:00	0.4%	8.9%	0.9%	15.4%	16.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	0.4%	12.9%	0.9%	15.4%	16.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:45+00:00	0.4%	12.9%	0.9%	15.4%	16.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:59+00:00	0.8%	12.9%	0.9%	15.5%	16.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:29+00:00	0.8%	12.9%	0.9%	15.5%	16.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:48+00:00	0.8%	11.7%	0.9%	15.5%	16.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	0.8%	11.7%	0.9%	15.5%	16.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	0.8%	11.7%	2.6%	15.5%	16.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	0.8%	11.7%	2.6%	15.5%	16.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	0.8%	11.7%	2.6%	15.5%	16.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	0.8%	11.7%	2.6%	15.5%	16.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	0.3%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	7.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	0.3%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	7.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	0.3%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	7.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	0.3%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	7.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	0.3%	11.7%	2.8%	29.3%	7.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	0.3%	11.7%	2.8%	29.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:29+00:00	0.3%	11.7%	2.8%	29.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	0.4%	11.7%	2.8%	29.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:23+00:00	0.4%	11.7%	2.8%	29.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	0.4%	11.7%	2.8%	29.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	0.4%	11.7%	2.8%	29.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T04:25:20+00:00	0.4%	11.7%	2.8%	29.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	0.4%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T05:56:00+00:00	0.4%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	0.4%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	7.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	0.1%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	0.1%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	0.1%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:45+00:00	0.1%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	0.1%	11.7%	2.6%	29.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	0.1%	5.1%	0.8%	29.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	0.1%	5.1%	0.8%	29.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	0.1%	5.1%	0.8%	29.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T13:29:09+00:00	0.7%	5.1%	0.8%	6.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	0.7%	5.1%	0.8%	6.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	0.8%	6.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	0.8%	6.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	0.8%	6.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:34+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	2.2%	6.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	2.2%	6.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	2.2%	6.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	2.2%	6.8%	14.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	2.2%	6.8%	14.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	2.2%	6.8%	14.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	2.2%	6.8%	14.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:12+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	2.2%	35.2%	14.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	9.4%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:46+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	9.4%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:02+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	9.4%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	9.4%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	9.4%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	9.4%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	9.4%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	9.4%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:32+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	8.3%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	8.3%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	3.2%	4.9%	8.3%	35.2%	14.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:31+00:00	27.0%	4.9%	8.3%	12.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	27.0%	4.9%	8.3%	12.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	27.0%	4.9%	8.3%	12.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	27.0%	4.9%	8.3%	12.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:57+00:00	27.0%	4.9%	8.3%	12.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	27.0%	22.7%	13.5%	12.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	27.0%	22.7%	13.5%	12.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	27.0%	22.7%	13.5%	12.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	6.9%	22.7%	13.5%	12.3%	4.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	6.9%	23.0%	13.6%	12.3%	4.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:27+00:00	6.9%	22.3%	13.6%	12.3%	4.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	6.9%	22.3%	13.6%	12.3%	4.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	6.9%	22.3%	3.6%	12.3%	4.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	6.9%	22.3%	3.6%	12.3%	4.3%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	6.9%	22.3%	3.6%	12.3%	4.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	6.9%	22.3%	3.6%	12.3%	4.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00	18.6%	22.3%	3.6%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	18.6%	22.3%	3.6%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	18.6%	22.3%	3.6%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	18.6%	22.3%	3.6%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00	18.6%	22.3%	6.3%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	18.6%	22.3%	6.3%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00	18.6%	22.3%	6.3%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	18.6%	22.3%	6.3%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	29.3%	22.3%	6.3%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00	29.3%	22.3%	6.3%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	29.3%	22.3%	6.3%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T04:15:07+00:00	29.3%	22.3%	6.3%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	29.3%	22.3%	19.5%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	29.3%	22.3%	19.5%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	29.3%	22.3%	19.5%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00	29.3%	22.3%	19.5%	49.2%	19.5%
2026-10-18T08:02:04+00:00	31.2%	22.3%	19.5%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	31.2%	22.3%	19.5%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	31.2%	22.3%	19.5%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	31.2%	22.3%	19.5%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	31.2%	14.4%	18.7%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	31.2%	14.4%	18.7%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	31.2%	14.4%	18.7%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	31.2%	14.4%	18.7%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	23.4%	15.2%	18.7%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:19+00:00	23.4%	15.2%	18.7%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:42+00:00	23.4%	13.8%	18.7%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	23.4%	13.8%	18.7%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	23.4%	13.8%	13.6%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	23.4%	13.8%	13.6%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	23.4%	13.8%	13.6%	42.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T19:28:03+00:00	24.1%	13.8%	13.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	24.1%	13.8%	13.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:21+00:00	24.1%	13.8%	13.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	24.1%	13.8%	13.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	24.1%	13.8%	13.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	24.1%	13.8%	27.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	24.1%	13.8%	27.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	24.1%	13.8%	27.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	27.9%	13.8%	27.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	27.9%	13.8%	27.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T03:00:01+00:00	27.9%	13.8%	27.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	27.9%	13.8%	27.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:00	27.9%	13.8%	27.6%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	27.9%	13.8%	35.0%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	27.9%	13.8%	35.0%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	27.9%	13.8%	35.0%	37.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00	19.4%	13.8%	35.0%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	19.4%	13.8%	35.0%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	19.4%	13.8%	35.0%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	19.4%	13.8%	35.0%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	19.4%	13.8%	35.0%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	19.4%	14.3%	30.3%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	19.4%	14.3%	30.3%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	19.4%	14.3%	30.3%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	11.9%	14.3%	30.3%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	11.7%	14.3%	30.3%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T15:14:03+00:00	11.7%	14.3%	30.3%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	11.7%	14.3%	30.3%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	11.7%	14.3%	30.3%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	11.7%	14.3%	25.9%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	11.7%	14.3%	25.9%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	11.7%	14.3%	25.9%	24.7%	8.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	14.4%	14.3%	25.9%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	14.4%	14.3%	25.9%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	14.4%	14.3%	25.9%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	14.4%	14.3%	25.9%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:21+00:00	14.4%	14.3%	25.9%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	14.4%	14.3%	30.3%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	14.4%	14.3%	30.3%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	14.4%	14.3%	30.3%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	10.8%	14.3%	30.3%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	10.8%	14.3%	30.3%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	10.8%	14.3%	30.3%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00	10.8%	14.3%	30.3%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	10.8%	14.3%	30.3%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	10.8%	14.3%	19.2%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	10.8%	14.3%	19.2%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	10.8%	14.3%	19.2%	41.3%	23.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	10.6%	14.3%	19.2%	41.3%	7.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	10.6%	14.3%	19.2%	41.3%	7.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	10.6%	14.3%	19.2%	41.3%	7.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	10.6%	14.3%	19.2%	41.3%	7.5%
2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00	10.6%	13.5%	9.0%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00	10.6%	13.5%	9.0%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	10.6%	13.5%	9.0%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	10.6%	13.5%	9.0%	11.8%	7.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	10.6%	13.5%	9.0%	11.8%	7.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	10.6%	13.5%	9.0%	11.8%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	15%	88.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	88.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	88.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	87.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 14 · 19:43 UTC

Original listing: Tucson runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗