KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

86%

85%

53%

28%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

ICONNO 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +42.00u · ICON −42.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	41.3%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	23.6%	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	1.7%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.1%	6.3%	0.0%	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	80.1%	17.9%	74.0%	—	28.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	77.2%	11.8%	39.4%	—	31.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	82.1%	49.2%	83.2%	—	73.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	67.4%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	82.7%	74.2%	84.3%	—	81.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	32.6%	77.4%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	75.2%	80.4%	89.9%	—	63.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	72.9%	81.0%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	26.6%	72.6%	9.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	73.9%	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	70.4%	75.3%	64.3%	—	71.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	60.9%	58.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	21.9%	81.7%	49.0%	—	65.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	26.2%	81.0%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	29.2%	76.2%	77.0%	92.7%	80.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	87.1%	0.1%	—	76.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	86.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	86.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	85.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	81.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	28%	79.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗