KTUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

86%

85%

53%

28%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

ICONNO 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +42.00u · ICON −42.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:15:07+00:00	88.3%	85.6%	79.6%	95.3%	88.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	88.3%	85.6%	89.3%	95.3%	88.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	88.3%	85.6%	89.3%	95.3%	88.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	88.3%	85.6%	89.3%	95.3%	88.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00	88.3%	85.6%	89.3%	95.3%	88.0%
2026-10-18T08:02:04+00:00	90.4%	85.6%	89.3%	77.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	90.4%	85.6%	89.3%	77.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	90.4%	85.6%	89.3%	77.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	90.4%	85.6%	89.3%	77.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	90.4%	89.7%	88.6%	77.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	90.4%	89.7%	88.6%	77.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	90.4%	89.7%	88.6%	77.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	90.4%	89.7%	88.6%	77.0%	83.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	86.7%	89.7%	88.6%	77.0%	83.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:00	91.2%	90.5%	85.8%	71.2%	41.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	91.2%	90.5%	97.5%	71.2%	41.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	91.2%	90.5%	97.5%	71.2%	41.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	91.2%	90.5%	97.5%	71.2%	41.9%
2026-10-19T07:34:08+00:00	84.3%	90.5%	97.5%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	84.3%	90.5%	97.5%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	84.3%	90.5%	97.5%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	84.3%	90.5%	97.5%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	84.3%	90.5%	97.5%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	84.3%	85.3%	94.5%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	84.3%	85.3%	94.5%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	84.3%	85.3%	94.5%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	64.6%	85.3%	94.5%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	64.6%	85.3%	94.6%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T15:14:03+00:00	64.6%	86.2%	94.6%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	64.6%	86.2%	94.6%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	64.6%	86.2%	94.6%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	64.6%	86.2%	88.3%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:44+00:00	64.6%	86.2%	88.3%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:24+00:00	64.6%	86.2%	88.3%	86.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	56.5%	86.2%	88.3%	87.8%	28.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:43+00:00	56.5%	86.2%	88.3%	87.8%	28.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	56.5%	86.2%	88.3%	87.8%	28.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:06+00:00	56.5%	86.2%	88.3%	87.8%	28.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:22+00:00	56.5%	86.2%	88.3%	87.8%	28.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	56.5%	86.2%	85.1%	87.8%	28.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	56.5%	86.2%	85.1%	87.8%	28.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	56.5%	86.2%	85.1%	87.8%	28.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	52.8%	86.2%	85.1%	87.8%	28.2%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	52.8%	86.2%	85.1%	87.8%	28.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	52.8%	86.2%	85.1%	87.8%	28.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	86.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	86.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	85.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	81.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	28%	79.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗