KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

88%

79%

78%

66%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 79.0¢Risks 78.95u

EPSNO 21.0¢Risks 21.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +21.05u · EPS −21.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	75.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	40.3%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	0.6%	41.3%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	69.5%	72.5%	0.5%	—	72.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	52.2%	92.1%	79.0%	—	82.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	27.7%	83.1%	77.2%	—	73.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	57.1%	92.8%	28.1%	—	66.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	63.1%	74.9%	50.8%	—	48.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	9.5%	79.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	49.1%	79.2%	24.1%	57.8%	53.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	64.1%	—	—	68.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	84.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	81.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	78%	83.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	77.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 76°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗