KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

88%

79%

78%

66%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 79.0¢Risks 78.95u

EPSNO 21.0¢Risks 21.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +21.05u · EPS −21.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	81.2%	67.0%	88.0%	62.2%	15.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	81.2%	67.0%	88.0%	62.2%	15.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	81.2%	67.0%	88.0%	62.2%	15.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	82.2%	67.0%	88.0%	62.2%	15.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	82.2%	67.0%	88.0%	62.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:28+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	88.0%	62.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	88.0%	62.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	85.5%	62.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	85.5%	62.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	85.5%	62.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	85.5%	62.2%	15.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	85.5%	92.1%	77.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	85.5%	92.1%	77.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	85.5%	92.1%	77.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	85.5%	92.1%	77.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	87.6%	92.1%	77.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	87.6%	92.1%	77.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	87.6%	92.1%	77.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	82.2%	65.8%	87.6%	92.1%	77.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	78.8%	65.8%	87.6%	92.1%	77.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00	78.8%	65.8%	87.6%	92.1%	77.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	78.8%	65.8%	87.6%	92.1%	77.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	84.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	81.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	78%	83.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	77.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	76.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 76°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗