KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

72%

66%

63%

55%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

ICONNO 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.70u · ICON −33.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	34.2%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	0.4%	34.8%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	63.1%	66.4%	0.3%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	44.9%	89.0%	73.4%	—	77.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	87.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	21.6%	77.8%	71.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	49.2%	89.6%	21.8%	—	58.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	55.0%	67.8%	42.5%	—	40.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	6.4%	73.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	40.5%	72.4%	17.8%	49.1%	44.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	55.4%	—	—	59.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	79.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	79.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	78.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	78.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	55%	77.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗