KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

72%

66%

63%

55%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

ICONNO 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.70u · ICON −33.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:15:08+00:00	73.4%	59.4%	83.1%	89.5%	74.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	73.4%	59.4%	77.1%	89.5%	74.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	73.4%	59.4%	77.1%	89.5%	74.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	73.4%	59.4%	77.1%	89.5%	74.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00	73.4%	59.4%	77.1%	89.5%	74.6%
2026-10-18T08:02:04+00:00	85.4%	59.4%	77.1%	59.0%	66.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	85.4%	59.4%	77.1%	59.0%	66.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	85.4%	59.4%	77.1%	59.0%	66.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	85.4%	59.4%	77.1%	59.0%	66.2%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	85.4%	52.0%	81.5%	59.0%	66.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	85.4%	52.0%	81.5%	59.0%	66.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	85.4%	52.0%	81.5%	59.0%	66.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	85.4%	52.0%	81.5%	59.0%	66.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	83.2%	52.0%	81.6%	59.0%	66.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:21+00:00	83.2%	52.0%	81.6%	59.0%	66.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:42+00:00	83.2%	51.0%	81.6%	59.0%	66.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	83.2%	51.0%	81.6%	59.0%	66.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	83.2%	51.0%	71.8%	59.0%	66.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	83.2%	51.0%	71.8%	59.0%	66.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	83.2%	51.0%	71.8%	59.0%	66.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:03+00:00	65.8%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	65.8%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:21+00:00	65.8%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	65.8%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	65.8%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	65.8%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	65.8%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	65.8%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-19T03:00:01+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	79.2%	51.0%	71.8%	72.3%	47.8%
2026-10-20T04:06:03+00:00	58.0%	76.5%	69.5%	56.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	58.0%	76.5%	69.5%	56.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	58.0%	76.5%	72.8%	56.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	58.0%	76.5%	72.8%	56.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	58.0%	76.5%	72.8%	56.2%	70.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	72.2%	76.5%	72.8%	56.2%	54.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	72.2%	76.5%	72.8%	56.2%	54.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	72.2%	76.5%	72.8%	56.2%	54.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	72.2%	76.5%	72.8%	56.2%	54.9%
2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00	72.2%	77.6%	65.7%	63.3%	54.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00	72.2%	77.6%	65.7%	63.3%	54.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	72.2%	77.6%	65.7%	63.3%	54.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	72.2%	77.6%	65.7%	63.3%	54.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	72.3%	77.7%	65.7%	63.3%	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	79.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	79.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	78.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	78.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	55%	77.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗