KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

52%

47%

39%

33%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.1¢Risks 45.15u

HRESNO 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.85u · HRES −54.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	0.1%	18.4%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	42.3%	45.8%	0.1%	—	45.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	24.9%	75.1%	52.9%	—	58.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	8.7%	57.6%	49.2%	—	44.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	26.8%	74.5%	8.4%	—	35.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	30.8%	43.4%	20.7%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	1.5%	49.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	18.4%	47.4%	5.7%	24.8%	21.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	29.4%	—	—	33.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	80.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	79.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	79.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	78.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	76.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗